Surprise, AZ Rental Market for Investors
An estimated 42% of Surprise's active listings could cash-flow as a short-term rental — here's what the numbers say for investors, as of October 2026.
As of October 2026, we analyzed 1,389 active for-sale homes in Surprise, Arizona. The typical listing is priced at $459,900 and is projected to generate about $40,803 a year as a short-term rental.
After setting aside an estimated 20% for operating costs, an estimated 41.8% of those homes could still cover an investor mortgage payment on short-term-rental income — below the 53.1% median across the 200 major metros we track, ranking Surprise #135 of 200 for cash-flow potential.
On market momentum: homes in Surprise sit a median of 68 days on the market, and 27% of active listings came on in just the last 30 days — a steadily paced market, which shapes how much room there is to negotiate.
For a DSCR loan — which qualifies on the property's rental income rather than your personal income — Surprise runs tighter once operating costs are accounted for: many listings need a below-median price, a stronger short-term-rental setup, or more money down before the income covers the payment. It's a market where running the numbers property-by-property matters.
What actually works in Surprise
Surprise works for investors, but the window is specific: 234 of the 1,246 Surprise homes, condos and townhomes we can price confidently clear a DSCR of 1.25. Nine in ten of them are priced under $525,000.
| Price | 1 bed | 2 bed | 3 bed | 4 bed | 5 bed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $150k–$250k | 0%0.87 | 53%1.31 | — | — | — |
| $250k–$350k | — | 17%0.87 | 64%1.40 | — | — |
| $350k–$500k | — | 2%0.74 | 18%0.97 | 35%1.16 | 71%1.44 |
| $500k+ | 0%0.45 | 0%0.57 | 1%0.64 | 6%0.83 | 35%1.09 |
Darker means a larger share of that group cash-flows. “—” means fewer than 8 active listings — too few to draw a conclusion from.
Surprise in full
| Active for-sale homes analyzed | 1,389 |
|---|---|
| Median list price | $459,900 |
| Median projected STR revenue (annual, gross) | $40,803 |
| Median average daily rate (ADR) | $175 |
| Median occupancy | 64% |
| Median beds | 3 |
| Median size | 2,032 sqft |
| Estimated cash-flow-positive share | 41.8% |
| Median days on market | 68 days |
| New listings (last 30 days) | 27.0% of active |
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Estimates for educational purposes. Final terms subject to credit, property & program approval.
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Prefer to talk now? Call or text Chad: 858-353-8331.